Technology

America Is Closing Its API

For decades, America ran the most generous open API the world has ever seen.

Free trade agreements. Open borders for goods. Most Favored Nation status handed out like developer keys. The pitch was simple: let anyone plug into the American economic engine, send us your exports, access our consumer market, and the rising tide of efficiency will lift all boats.

It was the economic equivalent of a tech company launching a free, unlimited API and telling the world: build on us.

And build they did. China became the world’s factory floor. Mexico became the nearshore assembly line. American companies moved upstream into design, IP, and brand while outsourcing the actual making of things to whoever could do it cheapest.

If you’ve spent any time in tech, you’ve seen this movie before.

The Free Tier Is Over

Remember when APIs were free? Google Maps, Twitter, Facebook. They flung open their platforms with zero restrictions. Third-party developers flooded in and built entire businesses on top of them. The platforms got distribution and network effects. Everyone won.

I would know. We ran this exact playbook at Buddy Media, building on Facebook, and again at Troops.ai.

building on Slack. It worked incredibly well. Both companies were acquired. But eventually, Facebook and Slack looked at what we’d built and realized they were giving away the store. They natively integrated our killer features into their own platforms. The open API giveth, and the open API taketh away.

Then came the pricing pages. Twitter killed its free API and started charging. Google Maps jacked up rates overnight and thousands of startups scrambled to rearchitect. OpenAI and every major LLM provider now charge per token, metering every single request that touches their infrastructure. What was once free became a line item, then a serious expense, then a strategic bottleneck.

That’s a tariff. Dressed up in developer docs instead of trade policy, but the mechanism is identical. You built on our platform for free while we were growing. Now we’re charging because we realize the value of what we’ve been giving away.

@gokulr talked about this strategy playing out at Facebook and Google. The result? They are two of the very best companies in the world. And there’s a graveyard of startups to show for it.

Look at U.S. trade policy and tell me it’s not the same pattern. Tariffs on Chinese goods. Reshoring incentives through the CHIPS Act. Restrictions on technology exports. Universal baseline tariffs floated every few months.

The message is the same one every maturing platform eventually sends: you’ve been accessing our infrastructure for free, and that era is over.

@howardlutnick recently delivered this very message at Davos.

Outsourcing Your Leverage

In tech, the open API era gave way to vertical integration. The companies that actually won didn’t just build platforms for others to plug into. They owned the full stack. Apple designs its own chips. Tesla manufactures its own batteries. Amazon runs the logistics, the cloud, and increasingly makes the products it sells.

The lesson is straightforward: when you outsource everything, you outsource your leverage. Open systems are great for growth. They’re terrible for defensibility.

America is learning this now, and the stakes are a lot higher than a startup losing access to an API.

When you outsource your manufacturing base to a geopolitical rival, you don’t just create a supply chain dependency. You create a military vulnerability. The same country making your consumer electronics makes components that go into defense systems. The same rare earth minerals that power your iPhone power your fighter jets. If the relationship deteriorates and the API gets shut off, you’re not dealing with empty shelves at Walmart. You’re dealing with a compromised ability to build the weapons your military needs to function.

This is why the U.S. is now backing American companies to acquire mineral mines in the Congo, competing directly with China’s decades-long head start locking up critical mineral supply chains across Africa. It’s full stack integration at a national level. You can’t just design the chip or assemble the product. You need to own the mine that produces the cobalt and lithium that make any of it possible in the first place.

Apple started designing its own silicon instead of buying from Intel. America is starting to secure its own minerals instead of buying from China. Same logic, wildly different consequences if you get it wrong. Apple ships a slower laptop. America loses the ability to defend itself.

The Stack Is the Strategy

The shift has real costs. Rate-limited APIs slow innovation at the edges. Tariffs raise consumer prices. Vertical integration is expensive and operationally brutal. There’s a reason companies outsourced in the first place, and there’s a reason countries did too.

But the calculus has changed. The question isn’t “what’s the most efficient way to produce things?” anymore. It’s “what’s the most resilient way to produce things, and who captures the value when things get tense?” This is especially true for strategically important categories like AI, weapons, defense, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare.

Tech learned this lesson already. The most valuable companies in the world aren’t the ones with the most open platforms. They’re the ones that control the critical and most valuable layers of their own stack.

America is running the same playbook at nation-state scale. The API is closing. The free tier is gone. And the winners in the next era, in both tech and geopolitics, will be the ones who own their stack from the mine to the microchip.

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Lotame Acquired By Publicis Groupe

Publicis Groupe has agreed to acquire ad tech firm Lotame, expanding the holding company’s global identity and data-management capabilities.” – Digiday

About eighteen years ago, I met Andy Monfried, who offered me an internship at his online advertising startup, Lotame. It was an opportunity I couldn’t pass up.

After graduating college, I joined full-time. But there was a catch—I had to reverse commute from NYC to Columbia, Maryland, where our headquarters was based. My days started early, really early. I’d wake up around 4 AM, jump in the car, and drive two to three hours to the office. During the week, I stayed in a corporate apartment with Andy, fully immersed in the startup grind. Then, every Friday, I’d drive back to the city, catch up with friends, and do it all over again the next week.

I kept up this routine until we eventually opened a New York office.

Looking back, those long drives to Maryland weren’t just part of the job—they were the foundation of an incredible journey. What I remember most isn’t the commute itself but the people I worked with. I was surrounded by some of the smartest minds in technology, and those early days shaped the way I think, work, and lead today.

Sometimes, the road to success is quite literally a long drive, wrapped up in a lot of patience —but if you’re surrounded by the right people, it’s always worth it.

Congrats Andy, Jeremy, and the rest of the Lotame team. Incredibly well-deserved!

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ThunderVC Pod = EP 50 How Dan Reich Cracked the Code to Multiple Successful Exits

I had a chance to join Jason Kirby on his Podcast to talk all things startups, fundraising, M&A, and bouncy balls. Jason also started and sold a few companies and is now running a company called Thunder VC where he’s helping founders navigate the wild world of fundraising and M&A.

His show notes and full video are below. It’s a good one.

→ Don’t Be Afraid to Pivot “Why My Mom Became My First Customer Service Rep”
→ Choose Partners Wisely “The Day I Realized My Business Partner Was on the FBI’s Radar”
→ Embrace the Unexpected “How Throwing College Parties Led to a Marketing Company”
→ Turn No’s into Yes’s “The VCs Said No. So We Did Everything They Said We Couldn’t.”
→ Follow the Wave “When Facebook Was Rising, We Rode the Social Media Wave”
→ Stay True to Your Vision “Why I Left a Cushy Corporate Job to Build My Dream… Again”
→ Build Relationships, Not Just Companies “How Saying No to an Investor Led to Multiple Deals Down the Road”
→ Think Beyond the Fundraise “The Goal Isn’t Raising Money. It’s Building a Profitable Company.”
→ Give Back “Why I Angel Invest: It’s Not About the Money”

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The Paradox Of More Value To More People In SaaS Products

When it comes to building SaaS products, all founders dream of having killer Product Market Fit (PMF). It’s the idea that your product is so good, and solves such a pain, that it basically flies off the shelves.

To do this, founders and product managers think about ways to increase the value of the product. One way to do this is to make the product valuable to a larger set of users across a company. As Clark Valberg, CEO and Founder of InVision once told me about Troops, “your product is so good because it is like tentacles into the entire organization.” The idea is if more people at a company find value, then obviously, the more valuable the product will be and the more likely it will be to sell that product.

However, the paradox of creating more value for more people, is that more people may feel like they need to weigh in on the purchasing decision. And more people, means more meetings, more friction, more decision-makers, more gatekeepers, and a longer period of time to sell the deal, if ever.

So what to do? Well, one approach is to focus on creating a valuable product for just one individual persona, thus limiting how many other people need to weigh in on the decision. Less friction! If you do this, you can get better bottoms-up adoption for that group of people. And perhaps after you’ve done your job here, you can move on and create value for other people in the company. But, making this transition from a single-use, single-persona product, to many personas is not that easy either.

This is the paradox of adding more value, to more people, in SaaS products.

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Qualified Small Business Stock and ChatGPT

Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) is a critical topic that most founders are unaware of.

Instead of writing my own blog post about what it is and why it is important, I asked ChatGPT:

describe what qualified small business stock and why it is financially beneficial to people that have equity that qualifies as qsbs

And the answer:

Qualified small business stock (QSBS) is a type of investment in the equity of a small business that offers certain tax benefits to the investor. QSBS is generally defined as stock in a domestic C corporation that is acquired at its original issue, directly or through an underwriter, and that satisfies certain requirements regarding the corporation’s active business, gross assets, and length of time the stock is held.

One of the main financial benefits of QSBS is that it allows investors to exclude a portion of the gain from the sale of the stock from their taxable income. For example, if an investor buys QSBS at a cost of $100,000 and sells it later for $200,000, they may be able to exclude up to $100,000 of the gain from their taxable income. This can result in significant savings on taxes and make the investment more financially attractive.

Another potential benefit of QSBS is that it may qualify for a lower capital gains tax rate. Under certain circumstances, the gain from the sale of QSBS may be taxed at a maximum rate of 28% rather than the higher rates that apply to other types of capital gains. This can further reduce the tax burden on the investment and increase the potential return on the investment.

Overall, QSBS can be a financially beneficial investment for people who have equity that qualifies as QSBS, as it offers potential tax savings and may be eligible for a lower capital gains tax rate.

It missed an important point about how much tax exclusion you can benefit from so I followed up with:

What is the total amount of money an investor can exclude from the gain of the sale if the equity is treated as qualified small business stock?

And the answer:

The total amount of gain that an investor can exclude from the sale of qualified small business stock (QSBS) depends on several factors, including the amount of the gain, the length of time the stock was held, and the amount of the exclusion that was previously claimed on the stock.

Generally, an investor can exclude up to 50% of the gain from the sale of QSBS if the stock was held for more than five years. This means that if an investor buys QSBS at a cost of $100,000 and sells it later for $200,000, they may be able to exclude up to $100,000 of the gain from their taxable income.

However, the amount of the exclusion may be limited if the investor has previously claimed an exclusion on the same QSBS. In this case, the exclusion is limited to the greater of 10% of the stock’s adjusted basis (i.e., the cost of the stock plus any improvements made to it) or $10 million. For example, if an investor previously claimed an exclusion of $5 million on the same QSBS and the stock’s adjusted basis is $100,000, the exclusion would be limited to $10,000 (10% of the adjusted basis).

In summary, the amount of gain that can be excluded from the sale of QSBS depends on several factors and can vary depending on the specific circumstances of the investment.

Lastly, I needed an image for this post. So I asked Dall-e-2:

create an expressive oil painting of a dog in a suit, smiling, depicted as an explosion of a money flying all around them

The results:

So there are two really important and unrelated points here:

  1. If you are a founder or early-stage employee, you should internalize QSBS and speak with your accountant about it.
  2. It’s worth spending some time with OpenAI and ChatGPT. It’s wild and only took me 5 minutes to create this post.

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From the Industrial Revolution to the Knowledge Era – Next Up: The Data Renaissance

1913 photograph Ford company, USA
Image via Wikipedia

The world will never be the same. Our society used to build machines and parts, in factories and in assembly lines. Today, our society builds computer programs and data bases, on laptops and in many cases, from anywhere around the world. People and businesses are becoming more efficient. They are working smarter, not harder, because they are beginning to leverage the most valuable employee of all: Data.

Take for example the airline industry. Consider all those times you got bumped off of a flight, rescheduled, canceled, or offered money to take a different flight. We’ve all been there and it always happens for a reason. This reason is that airlines try to prevent the loss of business and in doing so, they look at dozens of consumer driven behaviors such as how long you travel for, how many weekend flights you take, how many return flights you take, how many flights you take during the week, if you are a frequent flier, and the list goes on. All of these individual data points are used to inform a business decision. The decision is objective. The decision is data driven.

But what happens when we can make decisions using even more data points? Much more data points? Literally, hundreds of thousands if not millions of data points, and did I mention, in real time?

Welcome to the Data Renaissance. Thanks to increasingly efficient and scalable technologies like solid state drives, mobile devices, and cloud computing, the possibilities of data analysis are endless. I mean, just think about how much time we either spend online or connected to a mobile device. This has tremendous implications from travel, health and fitness, to finance, education, and media and the best part is, we haven’t even scratched the surface.

Like I said before, the implications here are huge. Many companies recognize the need to have these comprehensive data sets while having ways of analyzing that data. The digital media and online advertising industry in particular are both in a unique place since their very foundations are dependent upon these high growth technologies; digital devices and the Internet. In this space, companies are racing to a holy grail of advertising where they can leverage millions of individual consumer behaviors to inform brand engagement opportunities and purchasing decisions. Unlike the airline industry, online advertisers can leverage millions of data points instead of those “dozen,” and if done correctly, the consumer experience will be better than it’s ever been before. Everything will matter. Everything will be relevant. We will all become more enlightened and informed to things that interest the most because these new technologies are launching us into the very early, but still uncharted, data renaissance.

(Disclosure: The post can also be found at Lotame Learnings. Lotame is my current employer)

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A New Age of Online Media – The Build Up

“Here’s what’s important. We’ve allowed the way transitions look from the outside to drive our perception of what they must feel like to those going through them on the inside. From the outside, they look dramatic, almost revolutionary breakthroughs. But from the inside, they feel completely different, more like an organic development process.“-Jim Collins, Good to Great

Lotame Grabs $13 Million in Funding for New Advertising Idea

August 19, 2008 — 05:31 AM PDT — by Don Reisinger — — 13 Comments

Online advertising is the key to the future for companies that want to be successful, but a small firm called Lotame has just raised $13 million in Series B funding to take aim at advertisers and provide a unique way of getting in front of the target audience….(continue reading @ mashable.com) or at:


“Clearly, the good-to-great companies did get incredible commitment and alignment – they artfully managed change – but they never really spent much time thinking about it. It was utterly transparent to them. We learned that under the right conditions, the problems of commitment, alignment, motivation, and change just melt away. They largely take care of themselves.”-Jim Collins, Good to Great

*And if I couldn’t make it any more obvious, anyone in business or plans on entering the business world, should most certainly go out and buy Jim Collin’s book, Good to Great

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Are You In College And Thinking About Your Career?

Fred Wilson recently wrote a post about one of his portfolio companies and its search for interns in the NYC area.

In the Post…

Greg Yardley, founder/CEO of our portfolio company Pinch Media tells the following story about graduating from college and facing the career question:

When I finished school, I had a MA in Russian history and absolutely no idea what to do with myself – I started working as a customer support rep at an Internet startup because they were the first ones to offer me a job.  (If the startup was a week later with the job offer, I’d probably be a 911 emergency operator today.  Sometimes life can lead you to unexpected places.)  I was surprised to stumble across a field that I loved – soon I became a product manager, and now I’m the co-founder of a company. You never know – maybe there’s a career here for you that you’ve never considered.

Greg’s words could not be more appropriate to the current state of my career/life. Having recently graduated from college, I was faced with a choice:

  1. Enter the working world (with a conservative approach) – Get a job with will respected, high profiled employer. Good resume builder.
  2. Enter the working world (with a less conservative approach) – Join a startup, work on my own startup or company.
  3. Go back for more school – Law School, Masters, 5th, 6th year, etc.
  4. Travel and relax for a year or so

My original intent was to go back to school, however a unique opportunity presented itself, and now I am in the working world taking a less conservative approach then most of my peers.

As Greg said, “Sometimes life can lead you to unexpected places.  I was surprised to stumble across a field that I loved.”

This could not be more true.

Are You In College And Thinking About Your Career? Which decision would you make and why?

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New Ideas – Y Combinator

Startup Ideas We’d Like to Fund
Paul Graham
July 2008

When we read Y Combinator applications there are always ideas we’re hoping to see. In the past we’ve never said publicly what they are. If we say we’re looking for x, we’ll get applications proposing x, certainly. But then it actually becomes harder to judge them: is this group proposing x because they were already thinking about it, or because they know that’s what we want to hear?

We don’t like to sit on these ideas, though, because we really want people to work on them. So we’re trying something new: we’re going to list some of the ideas we’ve been waiting to see, but only describe them in general terms. It may be that recipes for ideas are the most useful form anyway, because imaginative people will take them in directions we didn’t anticipate.

Please don’t feel that if you want to apply to Y Combinator, you have to work on one of these types of ideas. If we’ve learned nothing else from doing YC, it’s how little we know. Many of the best startups we’ve funded, like Loopt, proposed things we’d never considered.

 

GREAT LIST. GREAT IDEAS.

http://ycombinator.com/ideas.html

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